Yesterday, the UK witnessed a political earthquake during the National Parliament elections, resulting in a breathtaking collapse of the Tory (Conservative) party. The huge news of the night was the meteoric rise of Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party. For the first time, Farage, the original leader of the successful Brexit referendum, has officially entered Parliament. He won the seat in Claen, a coastal city in the southeast of Britain. Even former President Trump sent his congratulations to Farage.
British political scholar Matt Goodwin provided insights into this seismic shift, explaining that Reform UK’s overall vote share increased by 13%. However, the most significant impact was in the most pro-Brexit areas, where the Conservative vote share plummeted by nearly 30 points. Goodwin highlighted that the core of Boris Johnson’s coalition—working-class voters, older voters, and culturally conservative voters—abandoned the Conservatives in favor of Reform UK. This shift resulted in the Conservatives losing numerous seats, with the margin of defeat often smaller than the vote share garnered by Reform UK.
The Rise and Fall of the Tory Coalition
The collapse of the Tory coalition is reminiscent of December 2019, when the Conservatives won their biggest landslide victory in nearly a century, primarily by promising to "get Brexit done." This victory marked a significant realignment in UK politics, with many working-class regions that traditionally supported Labour switching to the Tories. However, despite negotiating a relatively good Brexit deal, the Tories ultimately betrayed their voters on issues like immigration, wokeness, and taxes.
An interesting statistic underscores the disillusionment: 40% of all foreigners in the UK arrived in the last 10 years under Tory rule. Despite their promises to close the borders, the Tories presided over the largest surge in immigration numbers ever seen in Britain.
The Impact of Reform UK
Yesterday’s election results show that the coalition formed in December 2019 has collapsed. Regions that were once solidly Tory have now turned to Reform UK. Nigel Farage’s party, which is thoroughly nationalist, populist, and traditionalist, won almost 20% of the vote across the UK.
This political shift serves as a warning to other conservative parties worldwide, including the Congressional Republicans in the US. Treating core voters with contempt can lead to a significant loss of support and a realignment of political power.
The Future of UK Politics
Looking ahead, there is speculation about the future of UK politics. Some predict that the leftist Labour government will be in charge for the next five years, having won overwhelmingly by over 400 seats. However, it’s important to note that the vote for Labour was largely a punitive measure against the Tories, rather than an endorsement of Labour policies.
With Reform UK gaining significant support, there is potential for the Tories to be pulled towards a more conservative, nationalist, and populist platform. This could result in a future coalition between a revamped Tory party and a surging Reform UK party, potentially leading to a nationalist-populist supermajority in the next election.
Conclusion
The recent UK elections have marked a dramatic shift in the political landscape, with the rise of Reform UK and the collapse of the Tory party. As Nigel Farage and his party continue to gain momentum, the future of UK politics looks poised for further transformation. The coming years will reveal whether the Tories will adapt to this new reality or continue to face declining support from their once-loyal voter base.