The 2024 UK election campaign has been anything but ordinary, marked by unexpected twists and turns from the outset. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap poll in the rain, urging the nation to "choose its future" amidst some positive news on inflation. Sunak claimed that his leadership had helped the country recover faster than anticipated after years of global turmoil, asserting, "Only a Conservative government will not put our hard-earned economic stability at risk."
However, despite Sunak's optimism, it's challenging to find anyone who believes he will be re-elected. Already struggling in the polls, the Conservative campaign has been plagued by a series of self-inflicted crises that have only dampened their hopes further. Initially, the campaign focused on policies designed to appeal to their base, such as a plan for national and community service for young people. However, Sunak's decision to leave D-Day commemorations in Normandy early for a TV interview backfired spectacularly, drawing widespread criticism.
A Series of Missteps
In the final weeks of the campaign, allegations emerged that Conservative candidates and staff had placed bets on the timing of the election just before the Prime Minister announced it, raising suspicions of using confidential information—potentially a criminal offense. If the polling is any indication, the Conservatives' 14 years in power may be coming to a brutal end, potentially marking the worst election defeat in British history. Polls consistently show the Conservatives trailing Labour by around 20 percentage points.
Labour's Surge
The near-universal expectation is that Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer will become the next Prime Minister. Currently, the Conservatives hold 344 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, while Labour has 205, with a series of minor parties and independents making up the rest. For Labour to gain a majority, they need to win over 120 additional seats, nearly 20% of the seats in Parliament—a significant challenge under normal circumstances, but this election is anything but normal.
Electoral Dynamics
The UK's first-past-the-post electoral system, with no preferences or compulsory voting, means that the candidate with the most votes in each seat wins. This system could particularly disadvantage the Conservatives, as they are losing votes on all fronts—to Labour on the left, to the Liberal Democrats in the center, and to Reform UK on the right. Reform UK, led by prominent Brexiter Nigel Farage, may not win many seats but could significantly impact marginal constituencies, drawing votes away from the Conservatives.
A Fragmented Political Landscape
The 2019 election saw Boris Johnson win seats traditionally held by Labour, particularly in areas that strongly supported Brexit. This time, most estimates suggest the Conservatives might win only between 50 and 150 seats. Even at the higher end, this would be the worst result for the party in modern history. Labour is expected to reclaim many seats in the north and Midlands of England, gain seats from the SNP in Scotland, and see the Liberal Democrats take seats from the Conservatives in the south of England.
A Chaotic Five Years
Since the last election, the UK has seen a revolving door of prime ministers, a pandemic during which government figures, including the Prime Minister, flouted social distancing rules, and the brief but disastrous 49-day premiership of Liz Truss. Sunak has been unable to reverse the Conservatives' fortunes, with Labour maintaining an election-winning lead in the polls since 2022.
Future Challenges
Whatever the outcome, the next government will face a long list of challenges. While the 2019 election focused on Brexit, current polls indicate the economy, the state of the National Health Service, and immigration are now the most pressing issues. The electorate is increasingly fragmented, making political consensus more challenging to achieve. While Keir Starmer is more popular than the current Prime Minister, even with a massive majority in Parliament, governing a country so disillusioned with politics will not be easy.
As the nation heads to the polls, the future of the UK's political landscape hangs in the balance, promising a potentially historic and transformative election.